Healthier eating around the world would fundamentally transform agriculture
Study Shows the Extent
A global dietary shift toward a healthier, more sustainable diet by 2050 would fundamentally transform agriculture worldwide, reduce livestock populations, and decrease land use, according to a new study published in the journal *Nature*. The study, led by Cornell University and conducted in collaboration with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, highlights the opportunities and challenges of such a transformation of the global food system. At the same time, it makes it clear that proactive agricultural and food policies are necessary to shape this transition in an active and socioeconomically fair manner.
Bold steps toward a healthier and more sustainable global food system are urgently needed. The latest report from the EAT-Lancet Commission (2025) shows that approximately 15 million premature deaths among adults could be prevented each year if a healthy and flexible “Planetary Health Diet” were adopted worldwide. At the same time, the current food system accounts for about one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and is a major driver of the overshoot of five planetary boundaries. Furthermore, one-third of all food is lost or wasted, while half of the Earth’s habitable land area is used for agriculture—primarily for livestock farming and the cultivation of animal feed.
To examine the consequences of a comprehensive transformation of the food system, an international research team used ten global food system models to compare two future scenarios through the year 2050: a “business-as-usual” scenario and a transformation scenario characterized by healthy diets, higher agricultural productivity, and a 50 percent reduction in food waste.
Hermann Lotze-Campen, head of the Climate Resilience Research Department at PIK and co-author of the study: “Our study shows that continuing on the current course is the more expensive option. Providing a growing global population with healthy nutrition by 2050 would keep the total value of agricultural production roughly at the 2020 level while simultaneously reducing environmental and health costs compared to a business-as-usual scenario.”
Global agricultural land use would be reduced by 9 percent
In all models, the business-as-usual scenario leads to rising livestock populations, larger cultivated areas, higher production volumes, and greater environmental impacts such as greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen fertilization. In the transformation scenario, by contrast, a larger share of agricultural products would be used directly for human consumption and less for animal feed. In addition, the study forecasts lower production volumes of meat, dairy products, grains, and sugar crops; smaller livestock populations; reduced land use; and lower production costs and producer prices in these sectors.
Lead author Matt Gibson, a research fellow at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who coordinated the study during his time at Cornell University: “Across all the models we used, a transformation compared to the business-as-usual scenario could reduce global agricultural land use by 9 percent and the production value of livestock farming by 60 percent by 2050. Total agricultural production would be 17 percent lower than under the business-as-usual scenario, primarily due to changes in livestock production. However, these declines are partially offset by growth in other sectors: for example, the economic value of vegetable, fruit, nut, and legume production is projected to increase by 23 percent.”
Net CO₂ emissions from agriculture-related land-use change would fall by 76 percent
These changes in agricultural production would have far-reaching implications for the need for policy action in the agriculture and food sector. While the burdens would primarily affect rural regions with a strong focus on livestock production, the health and environmental benefits would be enjoyed by a broader population. For example, net CO₂ emissions from agriculture-related land-use changes would decrease by 76 percent by 2050 in the transformation scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario. At the same time, direct methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural production would decrease by one-third.
“The opportunities for the environment and health are enormous. At the same time, addressing the structural challenges in the agricultural sector requires a coherent food and agricultural policy as well as a dialogue that includes all relevant stakeholders,” says PIK researcher Felicitas Beier, also a co-author of the study.
The researchers conclude that the scale of the changes associated with a transformation of the food system requires correspondingly ambitious policies. Bold decisions today can help support those who are particularly affected by the transition while fully realizing the benefits of a transformed food system.
Note: This article has been translated using a computer system without human intervention. LUMITOS offers these automatic translations to present a wider range of current news. Since this article has been translated with automatic translation, it is possible that it contains errors in vocabulary, syntax or grammar. The original article in German can be found here.
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